Sequential coherence

Proposition taught in The Beta–Binomial model, part of Bayesian statistics

Sequential coherence

Type Proposition
Taught in The Beta–Binomial model
Part Bayesian statistics

Sequential updating is exact. If data arrive in batches (x_1,n_1) and (x_2,n_2), then \begin{align*} \theta\mid x_1 &\sim\operatorname{Beta}(\alpha+x_1,\beta+n_1-x_1),\\ \theta\mid x_1,x_2 &\sim\operatorname{Beta}(\alpha+x_1+x_2, \beta+n_1+n_2-x_1-x_2), \end{align*} which is the same posterior obtained by combining both batches first.

Used in

See also

Beta distribution · Beta–Binomial conjugacy · Two pseudo-count conventions · Conjugacy is optional · Beta–Binomial posterior prediction

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