Cycle
Topic of Forecasting, part of Time series
Cycle
| Type | Topic |
| Taught in | Forecasting |
| Part | Time series |
A repeating rise and fall in a series. A cycle of fixed period, such as twelve months, is seasonality; cycles of varying length, such as business cycles, are not, and a seasonal model does not capture them.
In Forecasting
From Forecasting
Plotting a series that R already knows is a time series puts time on the horizontal axis. Figure is not white noise. Deaths are higher in the middle of the year, the northern summer, and lower in winter. A twelve-month cycle is the obvious feature. The overall level is not a straight trend. It sags and then recovers, the sort of slow movement produced when a temporary legal or behavioural change pulls a series down and then lets it drift back.
Used in
- Taught in Forecasting
- All 2 questions on Forecasting
See also
Seasonality · Accidental-deaths data · Traffic data · Partial autocorrelation · ARIMA model · Unit root · Trend · Point forecast