Trend
Topic of Forecasting, part of Time series
Trend
| Type | Topic |
| Taught in | Forecasting |
| Part | Time series |
Slow change in the level of a series. A deterministic trend is a fixed function of time; a stochastic trend, as in a random walk, wanders and is removed by differencing rather than by subtracting a line.
In Forecasting
From Forecasting
Plotting a series that R already knows is a time series puts time on the horizontal axis. Figure is not white noise. Deaths are higher in the middle of the year, the northern summer, and lower in winter. A twelve-month cycle is the obvious feature. The overall level is not a straight trend. It sags and then recovers, the sort of slow movement produced when a temporary legal or behavioural change pulls a series down and then lets it drift back.
Used in
- Taught in Forecasting
- All 2 questions on Forecasting
See also
Accidental-deaths data · Traffic data · Partial autocorrelation · ARIMA model · Unit root · Seasonality · Cycle · Point forecast